Whilst total UK vacancy and job posting numbers are down, Engineering job adverts are up 6% on last year…
One of the defining characteristics of the current landscape is volatility. Labour demand has dropped significantly across the board (-5% QoQ), driven by unusual trend patterns and broader economic pressures. While STEM sectors have proven more resilient than the overall market, they too have seen a decline in demand (-11% Q3-Q4).
Interestingly, despite this reduced demand, actual hiring conversions have spiked (up 22%). The resulting average number of applicants for each job rose to 24 in Q3 from 19 in Q2 2024 – with LinkedIn recording the highest average number of applicants per job posted within Wave’s WaveTrackR’s sample of job boards, at 58.
This suggests a shift: although fewer roles are available, those actively seeking opportunities are more decisive and willing to move, as a result at Matchtech we are seeing our time to fill job vacancies reduce by 33%.
Official UK Job vacancies (Q3 2024):
QoQ (TBC)
Source: ONS
UK Jobs posted: (Q3 2024):
QoQ
Source: WaveTrackR
UK applicant volumes (Q3 2024):
QoQ
Source: WaveTrackR
Matchtech's time to fill job vacancies reduce …
Data from WavetrackR evidences that job applicant numbers continued to rise sharply in Q3 2024 – significantly up from the 14% YoY net increase in applicant volumes evidenced by Workday for UK roles in H1 2024.
Workday: (based on a 22% YoY increase in applicant volumes on an 8% increase in jobs through its platform in H1) Click for report
Exploring job posting volumes by occupational group
On a year-on-year basis, six categories had higher job advertising levels in the first week of October than in the same week in 2023.
Against an all-occupation index of 87% (up from 81% in the first week of July), Engineering job adverts were relatively buoyant at 87% (up from 81%) of prior year level, whilst IT / Computer at 70% (down from 76%) and job ads volumes within Construction rallied to 77% (from 49%) of prior year levels.
All-occupation index YoY
Job advertising index: year-on-year change, by occupation
Source for both: Matchtech analysis of ONS published data
As discussed in our last Quarterly Insights Report, candidates are not just using AI to refine their applications, the efficiency gains – and a growing raft of auto-apply AI tools - are also increasing the potential for them to apply for more jobs. And it is not just a volume issue that recruiters are facing – the ‘sea of sameness’ of AI supported applications is exacerbating the challenge.
3 out of 4
people use AI at work
Usage nearly doubled in the last six months
... of people are already using AI at work
... of them started using AI less than six months ago
BYOAI is not just for Gen Z
Employees across every age group are bringing their own AI tools to work
Gen Z (18-28) 85%
Millennials (29-43) 78%
Gen X (47-57) 76%
Boomers (50+) 73%
Source: 2024 Work Trend Index Annual Report from Microsoft and LinkedIn
Employers also want candidates to have AI skills – with two thirds of business leaders saying that they would not hire someone them without them – which leads to the TA recruiting conundrum: how should candidate use of AI during the applications process be viewed and managed when AI skills are going to be increasingly required as mandatory within the workplace and/or workers are going to increasingly use the AI of their choice (until tech availability and protocols are established) to perform their work?
... of leaders say they wouldn’t hire someone without AI skills.
... say they’d rather hire a less experienced candidate with AI skills than a more experienced candidate without them.
... of leaders say, with AI, early-in-career talent will be given greater responsibilities.
Junior candidates may have a new edge!
Source: 2024 Work Trend Index Annual Report from Microsoft and LinkedIn
Two seismic trends are taking place to address these issues:
A review of how candidates are sourced, with a focus on nurturing known talent with potential rather than broadcasting wide-open job posts that will generate a volume of CVs that will increasingly become too hard to handle, disappoint more candidates and damage the employer brand.
A review of what candidates are being screened and assessed for - as a result of both the fact that many of the legacy assessments can by gamed with AI and employer needs are evolving - with an inevitable shift to skills-based hiring – notably for early career positions.
Key takeaways and recommendations:
The current spike in applicant volumes, due to the enabling potential of AI, is compounding the issues of openly advertising job opportunities on a wealth of open channels. Beyond the administrative and technological investment required to screen more candidates lies the inevitable potential of disappointing more people and the increased danger of damaging the employer brand.
Increased use of talent networks – internal, external and those curated by third parties – will prevail, through which candidates with potential can be nurtured until either they are ready to move or that the organisation has an appropriate opening.
The current spike in applicant volumes, due to the enabling potential of AI, is compounding the issues of openly advertising job opportunities on a wealth of open channels. Beyond the administrative and technological investment required to screen more candidates lies the inevitable potential of disappointing more people and the increased danger of damaging the employer brand.
Increased use of talent networks – internal, external and those curated by third parties – will prevail, through which candidates with potential can be nurtured until either they are ready to move or that the organisation has an appropriate opening.
In relation to legacy assessment processes, it may be appropriate to conduct an AI Vulnerability Audit. This will provide and understanding of which stages in the process need immediate attention versus longer-term change.
Alongside this - and based on the fact that candidate use of AI has already become mainstream – offering guidance use of AI, where appropriate, will be welcomed by candidates.
In relation to legacy assessment processes, it may be appropriate to conduct an AI Vulnerability Audit. This will provide and understanding of which stages in the process need immediate attention versus longer-term change.
Alongside this - and based on the fact that candidate use of AI has already become mainstream – offering guidance use of AI, where appropriate, will be welcomed by candidates.
Key considerations for employers looking to access remote offshore talent include identifying the best near-shore locations, sourcing, screening, onboarding and integrating remote near-shore talent, ongoing compliance and international payrolling. With the added complexity this entails, employers will also want to consider whether to undertake this directly or to partner with an organisation with well-established talent networks and the underpinning infrastructure to enable deployment with ease.