Job-to-job move volume remained higher, in Q1 2024, than pre-pandemic levels…
In the first quarter of 2024, 778,000 people changed jobs, which is …
… or 67,000 more than in the same period in 2019 and …
… or 162,000 more than in the quarter before the COVID pandemic began (Q1 2020)
Of these 778,000 job changes in Q1 2024, 269,000 (35%) were due to people resigning from their previous positions. Although this is down from the peak of 442,000 (50%) in Q2 2022, during the post-pandemic "great resignation," it is only 4% lower than in Q1 2019 and 28% higher than in Q1 2020. This indicates that, while the number of job moves due to resignations is declining, it remains relatively high.
Amongst ‘Other’ reasons for moving jobs are the ending of contingent contracts. As such, the buoyancy in these numbers suggests high turnover within these forms of engagement models.
Number of job-to-job moves, by reason: Q1 2016-24
Nominal and real-terms regular and total pay: May 2013-24
The fact that nominal pay growth remains relatively high – coupled with the fact that inflation has fallen to a level whereby real-terms pay growth is now positive – points to one of the reasons why people are still voluntarily moving positions in high numbers.
This is reinforced by sentiment from Matchtech’s recent candidate survey, which evidenced that to achieve a notable increase of more than 5%, more people were achieving a pay rise by moving role than by remaining in their current role
Source: Matchtech 2023 Candidate Survey
Stayed in the same role with the same hirer and achieved >5% wage increase
Change role / hirer and achieved >5% wage increase
Change in the number of official vacancies, by industry: YoY, QoQ and compared to pre-COVID levels (Q1 2020)
With the volume of official job vacancy numbers within key STEM sectors continuing to decline, however, it is clear that the majority of hirers are increasingly just replacing business-critical resource and making new strategic hires.
Source: Matchtech analysis of ONS data
And in terms of strategic new hires, McKinsey Digital offers a window into the areas of cross-industry, technology hiring that – despite suppressed demand globally – appear to be still receiving notable investment. Somewhat unsurprisingly, “Gen AI emerges as a front-runner in the trends landscape, sharing the top spot with electrification and renewables for the highest percentage of respondents scaling its implementation.”* Hiring investment into the Future of Mobility also remains relatively buoyant.
* McKinsey Digital – Technology Trends Outlook 2024
Annual change in tech trend job postings 2021-23, millions of posting
Source: McKinsey Digital – Technology Trends Outlook 2024
The people they are seeking to hire are most likely incumbent within business-critical roles or strategic positions elsewhere. However, as such, there has been a rise in the instance of employers counteroffering to retain their existing scarce-skills / experienced talent rather than lose it to a competitor and have to back-fill the role with someone with comparable scarce skills and experience. Whilst - in theory - with overall inflation subsiding, wage inflation should similarly be falling. The rate of wage inflation is likely remaining high, however, due to the aforementioned battle for the most in-demand talent.
Key takeaways and recommendations:
Despite the subdued overall number of open vacancies in the UK, demand for talent to maintain a pipeline for business-critical roles and fill new strategic hires remains buoyant. At the same time, companies are working increasingly hard to retain the business critical and strategic talent they require to navigate these continuing economically and politically uncertain times.
Whilst it is clear that large numbers of people are still making job-to-job moves voluntarily, two key skills assume heightened importance when greater resistance to these moves by the current hirer starts to take affect:
- The ability to develop and maintain extremely close and trusting relationships with candidates.
- The ability to navigate and negotiate a successful outcome when more than one organisation is competing for talent.